Why Martha Coakley Lost To Scott Brown

Contributed by Lyndon Evans:

Wednesday afternoon I decided to take a look and analyze the numbers to see just where Coakley lost the Senate race in Massachusetts to Brown. What I found was surprising and came to a conclusion which Wednesday evening some of the talking heads were discussing. Using a variety of sources, the most importance of which is this interactive map of MA at the Boston Globe. Here’s what I found.

On November 24, 2009, Rasmussen Reports showed Coakley with a 15 point lead over Brown. It was after that in December that Coakley took her now infamous vacation and when Brown started his traveling in the truck campaign getting out and meeting and greeting the good folks in MA. What any good professional politician would do. I’ll leave you folks to make the comparison of good versus poor politician of Brown vs Coakley. I really don’t think I need to state the obvious.

By January 12 the percentages had changed in nightmare proportions for Coakley who then led Brown by the slim lead of 49% to 47%, again as Rasmussen Reports indicated. What was brewing for the Republicans was a perfect storm. A lackluster campaign and as I wrote in Wednesday’s commentary, the entitlement of winning Senator Ted Kennedy’s seat by Coakley.

The western part of MA went for Coakley until you start getting over to Otis. From there east to the greater Boston area the state goes to Brown. Here and there are the odd pocket of a town or two not falling in line with their counterparts for either Coakley or Brown.

But what I found most striking is the “Kennedy Kingdom” of Cape Cod.

Martha’s Vineyard went for Coakley. Chilmark 71% to 27%, West Tisbury 74% to 25% and Edgartown 56% to 43%. Nantucket also went to Coakley albeit with a tighter margin of 51% to 48%.

Now to the Cape itself where Provincetown handily gave the election to Coakley 84% to 15%, Truro 63% to 37%, Wellfleet 63% to 35% and Eastham 51% to 48%.

After that is where the Kingdom falls.

The rest of Cape Cod went to Brown. Even the “hometown” of the Kennedy’s, Barnstable went 61% for Brown and only 38% for Coakley.

To be honest when I first saw the map and started looking at the numbers for each town I sat in disbelief. The majority of the Kingdom of The Kennedys had voted Republican.

According to WHDH-TV in Boston there were 4 million registered voters in Massachusetts for Tuesday’s election.

Just over 2.2 million voted or 54%. In the 2008 election in which President Obama won, voter turnout in the Bay State was 66%. In this election 1,168,107 or 52% voted for Brown, 1,058,682 or 47% voted for Coakley and 22,237 or 1% voted for Independent candidate Joseph L. Kennedy who you know is no relation to the Kennedy’s.

The Boston Globe put up an interesting series of graphs which show the following.

Towns with more Republicans saw higher turnout. Towns with more Democrats saw lower turnout.

Towns with more Independents voted for Brown while towns with less Independents voted for Coakley.

So there are the numbers. The pundits on the Republican side claim victory by everything from folks already tired of big government and spending (guess they already forgot about Bush) to the honeymoon is over and we are taking back what was ours, to the weather, which really didn’t play a factor.

Brown won doing what politicians should do and Coakley loss by running a textbook example of how not to run a political campaign. And the Democrats who didn’t bother to vote are also to blame.

And there boys and girls you have The Perfect Storm. Good and bad politics and voter apathy.

Think about that the next time you say to yourself “why should I bother to vote ?”

Crossposted at: Focus On The Rainbow!